The state of Ohio has strongly supported Michigan

The final week of the college football regular season is now underway. Playoff aspirations and conference championship games are on the line for top teams, while Bowls eligibility is a factor for many others in the college football landscape. With the extended weekend and an influx of football on the schedule, this is one of the best weekends of the year.

While it’s depressing to see the regular season come to a close and knowing that we won’t see many of these teams in action for 9 months, there is still a lot of meat on that bone. What is the BetMGM betting market telling us on the slate this weekend?

Major Money Over The State Of Ohio

It’s no surprise that Ohio State-Michigan is the most bet game on the slate for this weekend. It’s the biggest game of the weekend and could well be the biggest game of the season. On the line for both teams, a spot in the Big Ten Championship game and a path to a playoff appearance. Ohio State is currently an 8.5-point road favorite at Ann Arbor.

At first glance, the action on this game seems pretty divided. 56% of bets placed support the Buckeyes to cover the spread. While not an exact 50-50 split, it’s pretty darn close. However, a closer look at the data paints a different picture.

Bettors like Ohio State to cover Michigan. (Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)

Currently at BetMGM, 86% of the money wagered on this game supports the state of Ohio. The disproportionate distribution of bet tickets relative to the bet handle suggests that larger pockets and sharper bettors are siding with the Ohio state side in this one, while Michigan could be more of a public game.

Jim Harbaugh has never beaten Ohio State as the Wolverines head coach. Ohio State has won eight straight games in the rivalry with an average margin of victory north of two touchdowns. In the last two meetings between these schools, Ohio State has beaten Michigan 118-66.

Almost all the action supports Notre Dame

Currently ranked 6th, Notre Dame has been rolling for a few weeks. In their last three games, they outscored their opponents 117-9, evidenced by last week’s 55-0 win over Georgia Tech. If all goes well for the Fighting Irish, they could end up with a legitimate record to advance to the playoffs.

The reverse is true for Stanford. They have lost six straight games. In their last three games, Stanford has been outscored 128-32. Stanford has just three wins this season and the program doesn’t even have bowl eligibility in sight.

There was significant line movement in this game, with the gap increasing from 17 to 20.5 points. Despite the drastic move, 98% of the betting handle is on Notre Dame to cover as a 20.5 point favorite. Obviously the books will be rooted for Stanford here.

Penn State now a road favorite

The “Michigan State is a Fraud” community took a victory lap after being beaten last week by Ohio State. Almost throughout the season, the analytical community and the betting market have had doubts about the quality of the state of Michigan.

Michigan State opened as a home favorite with 1.5 points over Penn State. Now? Penn State has 1.5 points on the road at East Lansing. Currently 71% of the betting handle is on Penn State to cover the spread.

In addition, 71% of the money is on this game to exceed the total of 52.5 points. The state of Michigan has the worst pass defense in the country, and in case you haven’t realized it until last week, you certainly know about this loophole by now.

It also serves as a potential landing point for the state of Michigan. Of course, the season has always been very successful and the Spartans will play in a good bowl game, but their dreams of winning the Big Ten or appearing in the playoffs are shattered.

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